New study published in the journal Intelligence & Cognitive Abilitiesshowed: high cognitive abilities identified in children at an early age weakly predict their intellectual results in the future.IQ scores fluctuate markedly throughout childhood and adolescence, and stable patterns of cognitive development are formed only by age 12.

Scientists from Spain sought to understand how stable cognitive scores are in the first two decades of life and what explains changes in children’s intelligence ratings.

Data from a large British longitudinal project, the Twins Early Development Study, which included 11,119 people, was used as a base. The researchers compared two groups of children identified by test results at age 7: those with normative scores (99–115) and those with high scores (>115). Participants were tested at 4, 7, 12, 16 and 21 years of age.

The analysis revealed significant cognitive variability. Only 16% of children who showed high results at 7 years old maintained this level by 16 years old. Among children with average results, about 8% eventually moved into the group with high results.

The problem of gifted children

Scientists noted:Personality and genetic factors play a much larger role in predicting developmental trajectories. Polygenic measures and socioeconomic status consistently predicted rates of cognitive change. This confirms the “Wilson effect,” according to which the influence of genetics on intelligence increases with age.

At the same time, the external environment turned out to be significant for children with normative results:Negative life events and behavioral problems were often accompanied by a decrease in cognitive scores.Children with high abilities demonstrated relative resistance to such factors. In both groups, involvement in learning turned out to be an important predictor of increased intelligence.

The data obtained cast doubt on the practice of early identification of “gifted” children: one-time testing gives low predictive accuracy, and in order to correctly monitor intellectual dynamics, repeated examinations are necessary.

The authors suggest that in the future, children’s cognitive trajectories should be compared with MRI data to study which features of brain development are associated with the retention or loss of high abilities.